Sports Betting Strategy: Why Mentality and True Probability Matter
Why Mindset Matters More Than Luck: A Smarter Approach to Sports Betting!
In this post, I’m going to show you how you can play responsibly using a sports betting strategy. Well, this industry gets a bad reputation day after day because people just think you’re going to end up losing money and even catch an addiction (which can be correct in some situations if you don’t control yourself). But I’m out here to show you that you could actually have fun and potentially make some money doing it. I repeat, potentially!
Let’s start with the first thing that is super important: your mentality. Most of people neglect this factor and focus on finding the best sports betting strategies. You know, it does not matter if you have any strategy if your mental game is not solid. Let me explain why.
To make it simple, your mental state has to be 1000% mature. You have to understand you’re going to lose, today, tomorrow, or after tomorrow. It’s going to happen. You have to accept that. You’re not going to win 100% of the time. Betting is about the probability to win more than lose while having fun.
Let’s say Real Madrid plays a weaker team and the odds for them to win are 1.50. That means a $100 bet returns $150, or a net of $50 profit. Most bettors say, “That’s not worth it,” thinking it’s 50/50. But if Real Madrid wins 80% of the time, the true probability is 80%, and not only 66.7% (You know how I found 66.7%, right? If you don’t, I can update my post by explaining it). In that case, we have a positive edge.
Now compare it to a tight match like Real Madrid vs Barcelona, both at 1.91 odds. A $100 bet wins $91. Sounds better, but if it’s a 50/50 game, you’re betting on worse odds since both teams are strong and we can’t really speculate the winner. Actually there is no sports betting strategy that can help us predict the winner.
My idea is to not only look at payout but at the true probability. When the actual chance of winning is higher than the odds, know that you’ve found your perfect bet.
For those who prefer online sports betting, I tend to choose bookies that offer high odds and weekly contests. I also appreciate projects that stay connected with their communities through forums and social media. 20Bet Sportsbook is one example among many.
This post contains a link to an online bookmaker that I recommend, and by using it, I may earn a small commission.